Modelling optimal vaccination strategies against COVID-19 in a context of Gamma variant predominance in Brazil.

INTRODUCTION: Brazil experienced moments of collapse in its health system throughout 2021, driven by the emergence of variants of concern (VOC) combined with an inefficient initial vaccination strategy against Covid-19. OBJECTIVES: To support decision-makers in formulating COVID-19 immunization policy in the context of limited vaccine availability and evolving variants over time, we evaluate optimal strategies for Covid-19 vaccination in Brazil in 2021, when vaccination was rolled out during Gamma variant predominance. METHODS: Using a discrete-time epidemic model we estimate Covid-19 deaths averted, considering the currently Covid-19 vaccine products and doses available in Brazil; vaccine coverage by target population; and vaccine effectiveness estimates. We evaluated a 5-month time horizon, from early August to the end of December 2021. Optimal vaccination strategies compared the outcomes in terms of averted deaths when varying dose intervals from 8 to 12 weeks, and choosing the minimum coverage levels per age group required prior to expanding vaccination to younger target populations. We also estimated dose availability required over time to allow the implementation of optimal strategies. RESULTS: To maximize the number of averted deaths, vaccine coverage of at least 80 % should be reached in older age groups before starting vaccination into subsequent younger age groups. When evaluating varying dose intervals for AZD1222, reducing the dose interval from 12 to 8 weeks for the primary schedule would result in fewer COVID-19 deaths, but this can only be implemented if accompanied by an increase in vaccine supply of at least 50 % over the coming six-months in Brazil. CONCLUSION: Covid-19 immunization strategies should be tailored to local vaccine product availability and supply over time, circulating variants of concern, and vaccine coverage in target population groups. Modelling can provide valuable and timely evidence to support the implementation of vaccination strategies considering the local context, yet following international and regional technical evidence-based guidance.

EPIDEMIOLOGIA DAS CANDIDEMIAS DURANTE O PÉRIODO DE PANDEMIA DA COVID-19 EM HOSPITAL DE ENSINO: DADOS PRELIMINARES

Introdução As infecções de corrente sanguínea por fungos do gênero Candida, também denominadas candidemias, são uma importante causa de sepse tardia em pacientes hospitalizados. Durante o período pandêmico, diversos estudos apontaram aumento de sua incidência em pacientes com covid-19. Objetivo Este estudo teve o obejtivo de avaliar a incidência das candidemias durante a pandemia da covid19 e os fatores associados a esta co-infecção em um hospital de ensino. Método Foi analisada uma coorte retrospectiva de 89 pacientes com hemocultura positiva para fungos do gênero Candida, internados entre março de 2020 e fevereiro de 2022, no Hospital das Clínicas da Faculdade de Medicina de Botucatu – UNESP. O diagnóstico da covid-19 foi confirmado por reação em cadeia da polimerase em tempo real, sendo os pacientes analisados segundo a presença ou não da infecção pelo SARS-Cov-2. Teste Exato de Fisher foi usado para comparar as densidades de incidência e os fatores categóricos associados a co-infecção, enquanto que para as variáveis contínuas foi usado o Teste U de Mann-Whitney. Foram considerados significativos valores de p menores que 0,05. Resultados Dos 89 pacientes com candidemia, 26 (29,2%) tinham infecção pela covid-19. A densidade de incidência de candidemia foi de 2,26 casos/ 1000 pacientes-dia nos pacientes com covid19 e 0,23 casos/ 1000 pacientes-dia nos demais [OR = 9,69 (5,89 – 15,53), p < 0,01]. As principais espécies causadoras da candidemia foram C. albicans, C. glabrata e C. tropicalis tanto nos pacientes com covid19 como nos demais. Houve uma tendência em maior incidência de C. krusei nos pacientes com covid19 (15,4 vs 3,2%, p = 0,06). Na análise dos fatores associados à co-infecção, os pacientes com covid19 e candidemia foram mais submetidos a corticoterapia (92,3 vs 18,5%, p < 0,01) e mais internação em terapia intensiva (92,3 vs 55,6%, p = 0,03) que os demais pacientes, enquanto que estes últimos foram mais submetidos a cirurgia abdominal (0,0 vs 44,4%, p < 0,01). A mortalidade em 30 dias foi semelhante entre os grupos, com 30,8% nos pacientes covid19 e 40,7% nos demais (p = 0,73). Conclusão Estes achados corroboram a elevada incidência de candidemia em pacientes com covid-19 e sua associação com o uso de corticoides e necessidade de cuidados intensivos.

Two hundred days of COVID-19 in São Paulo State, Brazil.

Two hundred days after the first confirmed case of COVID-19 in Brazil, the epidemic has rapidly spread in metropolitan areas and advanced throughout the countryside. We followed the temporal epidemic pattern at São Paulo State, the most populous of the country, the first to have a confirmed case of COVID-19, and the one with the most significant number of cases until now. We analysed the number of new cases per day in each regional health department and calculated the effective reproduction number (Rt) over time. Social distance measures, along with improvement in testing and isolating positive cases, general population mask-wearing and standard health security protocols for essential and non-essential activities, were adopted and impacted on slowing down epidemic velocity but were insufficient to stop transmission.

Increasing molecular diagnostic capacity and COVID-19 incidence in Brazil.

Different countries have adopted strategies for the early detection of SARS-CoV-2 since the declaration of community transmission by the World Health Organization (WHO) and timely diagnosis has been considered one of the major obstacles for surveillance and healthcare. Here, we report the increase of the number of laboratories to COVID-19 diagnosis in Brazil. Our results demonstrate an increase and decentralisation of certified laboratories, which does not match the much higher increase in the number of COVID-19 cases. Also, it becomes clear that laboratories are irregularly distributed over the country, with a concentration in the most developed state, São Paulo.